Modelling and predicting patient recruitment in an ongoing multicentre clinical trial

The smooth running of patient enrolment is a key determinant of success for clinical trials.  Two questions usually arise. Given the current status of an ongoing trial, how long will it take to recruit the remaining patients? How many additional centres should be opened in order to ensure completion within timelines? To address these two questions, predictions are made for the randomisation dates of future patients. This task is most conveniently carried out under the Bayesian framework. The proposed Bayesian predictive methodology has been developed for application on ongoing multicentre clinical trials.


"Marco Munda (1), Anaïs Debard (2), Sandrine Guilleminot (2), Bruno Boulanger (1) "


Pharmalex Belgium (1), Servier (2)

Presenting author

Marco Munda, Senior Manager Statistics, Pharmalex Belgium
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